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Sunday, March 06, 2005

Previewing the National League West

Here is a preview of the 2005 National League West Division:

Los Angeles Dodgers
2004 finish: 93-69 (first)

Additions: J.D. Drew, Derek Lowe, Paul Bako, Jeff Kent, Jose Valentin, Ricky Ledee.

Losses: Adrian Beltre, Alex Cora, Steve Finley, Jose Hernandez, Jose Lima, Tom Martin, Hideo Nomo.

Projected Rotation:
RHP Jeff Weaver
RHP Brad Penny
RHP Derek Lowe
RHP Kaz Ishii
LHP Odalis Perez

Projected Bullpen:
RHP Eric Gagne
RHP Yhency Brazoban
RHP Duaner Sanchez
LHP Wilson Alvarez
RHP Giovanni Carrara
RHP Elmer Dessens
RHP Aquilino Lopez (non-roster)

Projected Lineup:
C David Ross
1B Hee Seop Choi
2B Jeff Kent
3B Jose Valentin
SS Cesar Izturis
LF Jayson Werth
CF Milton Bradley
RF J.D. Drew

Projected Bench:
C Paul Bako
IF Antonio Perez
IF Olmedo Saenz
IF/OF Jason Grabowski
OF Ricky Ledee

Top Prospects:
1. Joel Guzman, SS
2. Chad Billingsley, RHP
3. Edwin Jackson, RHP
4. James Loney, 1B
5. Andy LaRoche, 3B

Top Pitcher: Eric Gagne
Gagne, at the age of 29, is one of the best closers in the history of baseball. Two seasons ago he posted a 1.20 ERA and struck out 137 batters in 82 innings, while only walking 20. Gagne has some of the nastiest stuff in the major leagues saved a major league record 84 games in a row before blowing one last season. In the last three seasons, Gagne has averaged 50 saves. The only thing that could slow him down is an injury and he has had some problems with his right shoulder.

Top Hitter: J.D. Drew
Drew broke out in a big way last season for the Atlanta Braves in his free agent season. The Dodgers rewarded him with a monster five year contract. He is one of the most brittle players in baseball, though, and almost never plays hurt. At his best, Drew possesses 30 home runs power and has good speed. He also walked more than 100 times last season.

Breakout Player: Jayson Werth
Werth is a former catcher and No. 1 pick of the Baltimore Orioles. He was converted to the outfield by the Toronto Blue Jays, who subsequently traded him to the Dodgers because of his questionable plate discipline. Werth is extremely athletic, very fast and possesses 30 homer potential. He could also easily strike out 150 times in a full season. Werth will have to be watched this year after rehabbing a partial tear in his throwing elbow.


San Francisco Giants
2004 finish: 91-71 (second)

Additions: Moises Alou, Armando Benitez, Mike Matheny, Omar Vizquel, Deivi Cruz.

Losses: Dustan Mohr, A.J. Pierzynski, Neifi Perez, Dustin Hermanson, Feliz Rodriguez.

Projected Rotation:
RHP Jason Schmidt
LHP Kirk Rueter
RHP Brett Tomko
RHP Jerome Williams
LHP Noah Lowery

Projected Bullpen:
RHP Armando Benitez
RHP Matt Herges
RHP Jim Brower
LHP Wayne Franklin
LHP Scott Eyre
LHP Jason Christiansen
RHP Jesse Foppert

Projected Lineup:
C Mike Matheny
1B Pedro Feliz
2B Ray Durham
3B Edgardo Alfonzo
SS Omar Vizquel
LF Barry Bonds
CF Marquis Grissom
RF Moises Alou

Projected Bench:
C Yorvit Torrealba
IF J.T. Snow
IF Deivi Cruz
OF Todd Linden
OF Michael Tucker

Top Prospects:
1. Matt Cain, RHP
2. Merkin Valdez, RHP
3. Fred Lewis, OF
4. Eddy Martinez-Esteve, OF
5. Nate Schierholtz, OF/3B

Top Pitcher: Jason Schmidt
Schmidt has developed into one of the most feared pitchers in the National League. Originally a highly regarded Braves prospect, he finally harnessed his filthy stuff with the Giants. There are injury concerns surrounding Schmidt, as he has battled elbow woes for the past few seasons. He is good for 200 innings, 200 strike outs and 15-20 wins for a few more seasons.

Top Hitter: Barry Bonds
What is left to say about Bonds? Love him or hate him, he is one of the greatest players ever to put on a uniform. He is also obviously respected by his peers, after setting a Major League record for walks last season with 232. Did you ever think you’d see someone play a full season and post a .609 OBA? Ridiculous.

Breakout Player: Pedro Feliz
Feliz can play first base, third base, short stop and even the outfield. He can also slug with the best of them. Last season, Feliz finally got a chance to play full time, although he played all over the diamond. This season, he should see more consistent time at first base, which should help him slug 30-40 home runs. The only red flag with Feliz is his plate discipline.

San Diego Padres
2004 finish: 87-75 (first)

Additions: Darrell May, Woody Williams, Rudy Seanez, Dennis Reyes, Chris Hammond, Dave Roberts, Geoff Blum, Eric Young, Mark Sweeney.

Losses: Alex Gonzalez, Terrence Long, Jay Payton, Ramon Vazquez, Antonio Osuna, Ismael Valdez, David Wells, Darrell May, Dave Roberts, Dennis Reyes, Rudy Seanez.

Projected Rotation:
RHP Brian Lawrence
RHP Jake Peavy
RHP Adam Eaton
RHP Woody Williams
LHP Darrell May (non-roster)

Projected Bullpen:
RHP Trevor Hoffman
RHP Akinori Otsuka
RHP Scott Linebrink
RHP Rudy Seanez
LHP Dennis Reyes
LHP Chris Hammond
RHP Chris Oxspring

Projected Lineup:
C Ramon Hernandez
1B Phil Nevin
2B Mark Loretta
3B Sean Burroughs
SS Khalil Greene
LF Ryan Klesko
CF Dave Roberts
RF Brian Giles

Projected Bench:
C Humberto Quintero
IF Damien Jackson (non-roster)
IF Geoff Blum
IF/OF Eric Young
OF Mark Sweeney

Top Prospects:
1. Josh Barfield, 2B
2. Freddy Guzman, OF
3. George Kottaras, C
4. Travis Chick, RHP
5. Tim Stauffer, RHP

Top Pitcher: Jake Peavy
Peavy jumped to the front of the rotation last season with a 15-6 record and 2.27 ERA, which led the league. At the age of 23, Peavy could have a long career ahead of him as one of the top pitchers in baseball, especially as he learns the nuances of pitching to go along with his excellent repertoire of pitches.

Top Hitter: Brian Giles
It took Giles a few years to earn a full-time gig with the Indians, but the moment he did he became a star. The past season and a half has been a bit of a disappointment for him though, as he has played in a pitcher’s park. Giles has an intriguing combination of power, speed and plate discipline.

Breakout Player: Adam Eaton
Eaton’s greatest weakness is similar to that of most young pitchers: inconsistency. He has great stuff but it often deserts him only five days after pitching a gem. Eaton missed pitching 200 innings for the first time in his career last season by 2/3 of an inning. He added 153 strike outs, which could improve once he harnesses his stuff. Eaton is also pitching in an excellent park for pitchers, which will help him as long as he is in San Diego.

Colorado Rockies
2004 finish: 68-94 (fourth)

Additions: Dustan Mohr, Alfredo Amezaga, Desi Relaford.

Losses: Jeremy Burnitz, Vinny Castilla, Royce Clayton, Shawn Estes, Tim Harrikala, Steve Reed

Projected Rotation:
LHP Jeff Francis
RHP Jason Jennings
RHP Shawn Chacon
RHP Joe Kennedy
RHP Jamey Wright

Projected Bullpen:
RHP Chin-hui Tsao
RHP Scott Dohmann
RHP Allan Simpson
LHP Brian Fuentes
LHP Javier Lopez
LHP Darren Oliver (non-roster)
RHP Matt Merricks (Rule 5)

Projected Lineup:
C Charles Johnson
1B Todd Helton
2B Aaron Miles
3B Garrett Atkins
SS Clint Barmes
LF Dustan Mohr
CF Preston Wilson
RF Matt Holliday

Projected Bench:
C Todd Greene
IF Luis Gonzalez
IF Alfredo Amezaga
IF/OF Desi Relaford
OF Jorge Piedra

Top Prospects:
1. Ian Stewart, 3B
2. Chris Nelson, SS
3. Jeff Francis, LHP
4. Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP
5. Juan Morillo, RHP

Top Pitcher: Jason Jennings
Jennings had incredible success in Colorado in his rookie season but came crashing back to earth the last two seasons. Even so, Jennings put up OK numbers for a pitcher who pitches half his games in Colorado. Jennings’ control has also gotten worse the last three seasons going from 70 to 88 to 101.

Top Hitter: Todd Helton
Whether or not Colorado boosts his numbers, Helton still deserves to be considered one of the best hitters in baseball. In the last three seasons, Helton has hit .329, .358 and .347. Last season, he also walked 127 times while only striking out 72 times.

Breakout Player: Dustan Mohr
Mohr is an excellent hitter, especially when he gets the chance to play everyday. Add that to the thin air in Colorado and Mohr could be poised for a breakout season in 2005. He plays hard every day and gives his all. He also has solid speed and power potential. Mohr has had questionable plate discipline in the past but he greatly improved it last season and posted a .394 OBA.

Arizona Diamondbacks
2004 finish: 51-111 (fifth)

Additions: Troy Glaus, Russ Ortiz, Javier Vazquez, Shawn Estes, Royce Clayton, Jose Cruz, Shawn Green, Tony Clark, Kelly Stinnett, Craig Counsell.

Losses: Richie Sexson, Danny Bautista, Carlos Baerga, Greg Colbrunn, Shea Hillenbrand, Casey Fossum, Randy Johnson, Matt Mantei, Stephen Randolph.

Projected Rotation:
RHP Javier Vazquez
RHP Russ Ortiz
RHP Brandon Webb
LHP Shawn Estes
LHP Brad Halsey

Projected Bullpen:
RHP Greg Aquino
RHP Jose Valverde
RHP Mike Koplove
LHP Randy Choate
RHP Brandon Lyon
RHP Brian Bruney
RHP Jason Bulger

Projected Lineup:
C Chris Snyder
1B Chad Tracy
2B Scott Hairston
3B Troy Glaus
SS Royce Clayton
LF Luis Gonzalez
CF Jose Cruz
RF Shawn Green

Projected Bench:
C Kelly Stinnett (non-roster)
IF Tony Clark
IF Alex Cintron
IF Craig Counsell
OF Luis Terrero

Top Prospects:
1. Carlos Quentin, OF
2. Conor Jackson, OF
3. Sergio Santos, SS
4. Jon Zeringue, OF
5. Greg Aquino, RHP

Top Pitcher: Javier Vazquez
Despite his well-documented problems in New York last season, Vazquez is one of the best pitchers in the National League based on his seasons in Montreal. He could be a No. 1 starter on most teams in baseball and could provide Arizona with 200 worry-free innings and 15 wins.

Top Hitter: Shawn Green
In retrospect, playing in his hometown is probably one of the worst things that Green could have done. As the pressure and spotlight on him increased, his numbers decreased after All Star seasons in Toronto. At his best, Green could hit 40 home runs, drive in 100 runs and hit .300. Whether he can still do that, remains to be seen. He is still, though, an above average outfielder with a cannon for an arm.

Breakout Player: Brandon Webb
A groundball pitcher, Webb put together a great rookie campaign with a 2.84 ERA, 180 innings pitched and 172 strike outs. That many strike outs, is extremely encouraging for groundball pitchers, who normally post low numbers in that category. Last season, Webb suffered with a poor defensive team and he lost 16 games, although he kept his ERA under 4.00. One glaring stat, though, was his 119 walks allowed. If he can harness his control a little more, he could be an elite player.

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