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Thursday, March 03, 2005

Previewing the National League Central

Here is a preview of the 2005 National League Central Division:

St. Louis Cardinals
2004 finish: 105-57 (first)

Additions: Mark Mulder, Mike Myers, Bob File, Mark Grudzielanek, David Eckstein, Einar Diaz, Abe Nunez.

Losses: Edgar Renteria, Woody Williams, Steve Kline, Mike Matheny, Tony Womack, Marlon Anderson, Kiko Calero, Dan Haren.

Projected Rotation:
LHP Mark Mulder
RHP Chris Carpenter
RHP Matt Morris
RHP Jeff Suppan
RHP Jason Marquis

Projected Bullpen:
RHP Jason Isringhausen
RHP Julian Tavarez
RHP Cal Eldred
LHP Ray King
LHP Mike Myers
RHP Al Reyes
RHP Bob File (non-roster)

Projected Lineup:
C Yadier Molina
1B Albert Pujols
2B Mark Grudzielanek
3B Scott Rolen
SS David Eckstein
LF Reggie Sanders
CF Jim Edmonds
RF Larry Walker

Projected Bench:
C Einar Diaz
IF Abe Nunez (non-roster)
IF John Gall
IF/OF John Mabry
OF Roger Cedeno

Top Prospects:
1. Anthony Reyes, RHP
2. Adam Wainwright, RHP
3. Blake Hawksworth, RHP
4. Chris Lambert, RHP
5. Stuart Pomeranz, RHP

Top Pitcher: Mark Mulder
The Cardinals may not have a lot of household names on their starting staff but they have one of the best rotations in the National League, led by Mulder. He has always held a lot of potential and Mulder should continue this year to build on his reputation as one of the best left handed pitchers in the game, if he can remain healthy. Mulder is good for 200-plus innings and 15-20 wins.

Top Hitter: Albert Pujols
At the age of 25, Pujols has four major league seasons behind him and is arguably one of the top five players in baseball. The only thing he doesn't do well is run. Pujols owns a career .333 average and hit more than 40 home runs each of the last two seasons. He has also driven in more than 120 runs in each of his four seasons and he walks more than he strikes out, which is extremely rare for a power hitter.

Breakout Player: Jason Marquis
Marquis finally lived up to the potential that has surrounded him since he was a No. 1 draft pick of the Atlanta Braves in the 1996 amateur draft out of high school. He won 15 games, posted a 3.71 ERA and pitched 200 innings for the first time in his career. The only real problem Marquis still has is that he walks too many batters.

Houston Astros
2004 finish: 92-70 (second)

Additions: John Franco

Losses: Jeff Kent, Carlos Beltran, Darren Oliver, Dan Miceli.

Projected Rotation:
RHP Roy Oswalt
RHP Roger Clemens
LHP Andy Pettitte
RHP Tim Redding
RHP Brandon Backe

Projected Bullpen:
RHP Brad Lidge
RHP Chad Qualls
RHP Chad Harville
LHP Mike Gallo
LHP John Franco
RHP Brandon Duckworth
RHP Pete Munro

Projected Lineup:
C Brad Ausmus
1B Jeff Bagwell
2B Chris Burke
3B Morgan Ensberg
SS Adam Everett
LF Craig Biggio
CF Jason Lane
RF Lance Berkman (injured)

Projected Bench:
C Raul Chavez
IF Mike Lamb
IF Jose Vizcaino
IF Eric Bruntlett
OF Orlando Palmeiro

Top Prospects:
1. Chris Burke, 2B
2. Ezequiel Astacio, RHP
3. Willy Taveras, OF
4. Mitch Einertson, OF
5. Troy Patton, LHP

Top Pitcher: Roger Clemens
It's hard to believe that a pitcher, who began his major league career back in 1984, can be considered a team's top pitcher. But it has nothing to do with a weak staff surrounding him because Roy Oswalt and Andy Pettitte are nothing to sneeze at. Clemens is simply the type of pitcher that comes around once every 15 or 20 years. At the age of 42 he was awarded his seventh Cy Young award after going 18-4 with a 2.98 ERA in more than 200 innings and striking out more than 200 batters.

Top Hitter: Lance Berkman
Berkman will likely start the season on the disabled list with a knee injury, which he suffered in the off-season, but he is still easily the Astros' best offensive player. He can be counted on for 30-40 home runs, 100 runs and RBI, and a .280-.300 average. Berkman is even more important to the Astros now that Bagwell and Biggio are in the twilight of their careers.

Breakout Player: Jason Lane
Lane is a little bit like Brian Giles, in the sense that he possesses a ton of talent, but he has not been given a chance to be a regular until late in his 20s. Also like Giles, Lane has big time power potential and the ability to hit for a solid average and drive in runners. A .280 average, 30 homer, 100 RBI season is not out of the question.


Chicago Cubs
2004 finish: 89-73 (third)

Additions: Jerry Hairston, Henry Blanco, Jeremy Burnitz, Stephen Randolph.

Losses: Matt Clement, Moises Alou, Mark Grudzielanek, Kent Mercker, Sammy Sosa, Ben Grieve, Paul Bako, Tom Goodwin, Ramon Martinez.

Projected Rotation:
RHP Mark Prior
RHP Kerry Wood
RHP Carlos Zambrano
RHP Greg Maddux
LHP Glendon Rusch

Projected Bullpen:
RHP LaTroy Hawkins
RHP Ryan Dempster
RHP Joe Borowski
LHP Mike Remlinger
LHP Will Ohman
RHP Todd Wellemeyer
LHP Stephen Randolph

Projected Lineup:
C Michael Barrett
1B Derek Lee
2B Todd Walker
3B Aramis Ramirez
SS Nomar Garciaparra
LF Jason DuBois
CF Corey Patterson
RF Jeremy Burnitz

Projected Bench:
C Henry Blanco
IF Jose Macias
IF Neifi Perez
1B/OF Rene Reyes (non-roster)
OF Todd Hollandsworth

Top Prospects:
1. Brian Dopirak, 1B
2. Felix Pie, OF
3. Ryan Harvey, OF
4. Angel Guzman, RHP
5. Billy Petrick, RHP

Top Pitcher: Mark Prior
Prior is no secret to baseball fans. He has been touted as the next great pitcher since his college days, if not before. All his pitches are plus pitches and he has amazing command for such a young player. The only thing that could derail Prior's career would be an injury to his arm or shoulder.

Top Hitter: Aramis Ramirez
Ramirez seems like he has been around forever, having played seven seasons, but he is only 26. In the last two years, Ramirez has stepped up his game and is now considered one of the best third basemen in the majors. Last season he showed his worth to the Cubs by batting .318 with 36 homers and 103 RBI. He also cleaned up his fielding and cut his errors from 33 to 10.

Breakout Player: Jason DuBois
DuBois is a little bit like Jason Lane. He has never been given a shot by the Cubs because manager Dusty Baker prefers to play veterans. DuBois, though, deserves his shot after hitting more than 30 home runs in triple-A last season. He has the ability to be an impact player in the majors and hit 20-30 home runs, although time will tell if he can hit better than .250 or .260.


Cincinnati Reds
2004 finish: 76-86 (fourth)

Additions: Ramon Ortiz, Eric Milton, Ben Weber, Kent Mercker, David Weathers, Joe Randa, Rich Aurilia.

Losses: Barry Larkin, Mike Matthews, Todd Van Poppel, Jose Castro.

Projected Rotation:
RHP Ramon Ortiz
RHP Paul Wilson
RHP Aaron Harang
LHP Eric Milton
LHP Brandon Claussen

Projected Bullpen:
RHP Danny Graves
RHP Ryan Wagner
RHP Ben Weber
LHP Kent Mercker
LHP Jung Bong
RHP David Weathers
RHP Josh Hancock

Projected Lineup:
C Jason LaRue
1B Sean Casey
2B D'Angelo Jimenez
3B Joe Randa
SS Felipe Lopez
LF Adam Dunn
CF Ken Griffey
RF Austin Kearns

Projected Bench:
C Javier Valentin
IF Rich Aurilia (non-roster)
IF Ryan Freel
IF/OF Jason Romano (non-roster)
OF Wily Mo Pena

Top Prospects:
1. Homer Bailey, RHP
2. Edwin Encarnacion, 3B
3. Richie Gardner, RHP
4. Joey Votto, 1B
5. B.J. Szymasnki, OF

Top Pitcher: Eric Milton
Eric Milton would probably be a No. 3 pitcher on most teams but the Reds sorely lack quality pitching, especially in the starting rotation. Originally a Yankees' draft pick, Milton flirted with stardom as a member of the Minnesota Twins but established himself as a solid, reliable left handed starter. In 2004 with the Philadelphia Phillies, he went 14-6, struck out 161 batters and pitched more than 200 innings. However, he also had a 4.75 ERA and walked 75 batters.

Top Hitter: Sean Casey
Casey has always had a sweet swing that had scouts projecting him as a future batting champion, but injuries and inconsistencies derailed his career. However, finally healthy in 2004, Casey batted .324 with 24 homers and 99 RBI. He also struck out only 36 times.

Breakout Player: Austin Kearns
Like Casey, Kearns has battled injuries throughout his young career, although he remains loaded with talent. Three seasons ago, in his rookie campaign, Kearns batted .315 and showed power potential. However, in 2004 he slipped to .230 and nine home runs in 64 games during an injury-riddled season. Kearns looks healthy this season and, if he can hold off Wily Mo Pena for playing time, he should be ready to join teammate Adam Dunn as one of the elite young players in the game.


Pittsburgh Pirates
2004 finish: 72-89 (fifth)

Additions: Matt Lawton, Mark Redman, Benito Santiago.

Losses: Abe Nunez, Brian Boehringer, Jason Kendall.

Projected Rotation:
LHP Oliver Perez
RHP Kip Wells
LHP Mark Redman
RHP Josh Fogg
LHP David Williams

Projected Bullpen:
RHP Jose Mesa
RHP Salomon Torres
RHP Brian Meadows
LHP Mike Gonzalez
LHP John Grabow
RHP Rick White (non-roster)
RHP Ryan Vogelsong

Projected Lineup:
C Benito Santiago
1B Craig Wilson
2B Bobby Hill
3B Ty Wigginton
SS Jack Wilson
LF Jason Bay
CF Tike Redman
RF Matt Lawton

Projected Bench:
C Humberto Cota
IF Freddy Sanchez
IF Jose Castillo
IF/OF Rob Mackowiak
OF Daryle Ward

Top Prospects:
1. Zach Duke, LHP
2. Neil Walker, C
3. John Van Benschoten, RHP
4. Ian Snell, RHP
5. Tom Gorzelanny, LHP

Top Pitcher: Oliver Perez
Perez has the potential to be one of the best left handed starters in the game and he is only 23. Last season, after coming over from the Padres with Jason Bay for Brian Giles (oops), he went 12-10 with a 2.98 ERA for a terrible Pirates team. As well, Perez struck out 239 batters in 196 innings. He possesses above-average stuff, including an electric fastball, for a left handed pitcher.

Top Hitter: Jack Wilson
Wilson's bat finally caught up to his defence in 2004. Always a superior defender, Wilson batted .308 with 201 hits, 41 doubles, 12 triples and 11 homers. He did only walked 26 times though, which leads one to worry that he will not be able to duplicate his 2004 success unless he improves on his discipline.

Breakout Player: Mike Gonzalez
Someone apparently forgot to tell Gonzalez that the majors are harder than the minors. In 43 innings, he posted an amazing 1.25 ERA and walked only six batters while striking out 55. Based on those numbers, Gonzalez deserves a big role in the Pirates' pen this season and he should build on his previous success.


Milwaukee Brewers
2004 finish: 67-94 (sixth)

Additions: Rick Helling, Ricky Bottalico, Carlos Lee, Justin Lehr, Chris Magruder.

Losses: Scott Podsednik, Craig Counsell, Gary Bennett, Keith Ginter, Dan Kolb.

Projected Rotation:
RHP Ben Sheets
LHP Doug Davis
RHP Rick Helling (non-roster)
RHP Chris Capuano
RHP Victor Santos

Projected Bullpen:
RHP Mike Adams
RHP Ricky Bottalico
RHP Gary Glover
LHP Jorge De la Rosa
RHP/OF Brooks Kieschnick
RHP Justin Lehr
RHP Matt Wise

Projected Lineup:
C Damien Miller
1B Lyle Overbay
2B Junior Spivey
3B Wes Helms
SS J.J. Hardy
LF Carlos Lee
CF Brady Clark
RF Geoff Jenkins

Projected Bench:
C Chad Moeller
IF Billy Hall
IF Russ Branyan
OF Chris Magruder
OF Corey Hart

Top Prospects:
1. Rickie Weeks, 2B
2. Prince Fielder, 1B
3. J.J. Hardy, SS
4. Jose Capellan, RHP
5. Mark Rogers, RHP

Top Pitcher: Ben Sheets
Sheets may have only been 12-14 last season but he established himself as one of the best young pitchers in the major leagues while playing for a dismal team. Sheets had a 2.70 ERA, the first sub-4.00 ERA of his career, and stuck out 264 batters in 237 innings. Rumors are already floating around that the Yankees have targeted Sheets as a potential trade target when he gets too expensive for the Brewers modest budget.

Top Hitter: Carlos Lee
Coming over from the White Sox after an off-season trade, Lee edges Geoff Jenkins for the Brewers best hitter. Lee is good for a .290-.300 average, 30 homers and 100 RBI. He can also run a little bit, has improved his plate discipline and does not strike out that much. He should do well for the Brewers in the heart of their order.

Breakout Player: Lyle Overbay
Overbay came on strong last season after being traded from Arizona in the Richie Sexson deal, but he wore down in the second half and struggled. This season he should be better prepared for the rigors of a long major league season. Despite his second-half fade, Overbay still hit .301 with 53 doubles and 16 homers. More of his doubles should start finding the seats as he matures as a hitter and he has the potential to drive in 100 runners.

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