2005 Predictions - Standings
Here are my 2005 National League standings predictions. I am using a new equation to predict my standings this season and I am quite curious to see how they turn out. Basically, the prediction weighs runs scored versus runs allowed (based on historical trends). The biggest surprise was how well the Marlins are predicted to do and how poorly the Astros project... but they really do have a pretty weak offence with Bagwell and Biggio nearing the ends of their careers. It doesn't help, either, that Berkman is predicted to miss a month or two with an injury to his knee.
National League
East
1. Florida Marlins
2. Philadelphia Phillies
3. Atlanta Braves
4. New York Mets
5. Washington Nationals
Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Chicago Cubs (Wildcard)
3. Pittsburgh Pirates
4. Milwaukee Brewers
5. Cincinnati Reds
6. Houston Astros
West
1. San Francisco Giants
2. San Diego Padres
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Colorado Rockies
5. Arizona Diamondbacks
*Originally the Cubs and Cardinals were flipped until the Sosa trade happened.
National League
East
1. Florida Marlins
2. Philadelphia Phillies
3. Atlanta Braves
4. New York Mets
5. Washington Nationals
Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Chicago Cubs (Wildcard)
3. Pittsburgh Pirates
4. Milwaukee Brewers
5. Cincinnati Reds
6. Houston Astros
West
1. San Francisco Giants
2. San Diego Padres
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Colorado Rockies
5. Arizona Diamondbacks
*Originally the Cubs and Cardinals were flipped until the Sosa trade happened.
posted by Marc Hulet @ 6:45 PM
2 Comments:
At 1:42 PM,
Anonymous said…
I don't think Florida is much of a surprise as I think a good number of people will pick them to win the East.
Houston on the other hand... kudos to you if that's how it turns out!
At 11:00 AM,
Marc Hulet said…
Thanks for commenting... I even had the Marlins winning the East before they added Delgado and that signing just made the numbers look all the more impressive.
I read an article today that was quoting various front office members of the Astros saying they will have to find many different ways to generate runs if they are to be successful this year. When you look at the production numbers of the starting lineup, it just doesn't impress... especially with Berkman sidelined for a while. Even I was surprised, though, when my calculations put them below the likes of Pittsburgh and Milwaukee.
The closest two teams in terms of production were Chicago and St. Louis, with Chicago having the better pitching and St. Louis having the better hitting.
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